Jared Diamond is a Pulitzer Prize winning author of books about the rise and fall of societies, his best known are: Collapse: How Societies Choose to Fail or Succeed, and Guns, Germs, and Steel: The Fates of Human Societies, where he examines the long-term, interdependent factors that lead to any society's success or failure. Another perspective is provided by Joseph Tainter in his The Collapse of Complex Societies. What they all agree on is that complex civilizations are quite vulnerable, at least when they are modern and short-sighted as all of today's societies are, or are in the process of becoming, because we are all guilty of destroying the future through environmental plundering. Jared Diamond, in fact declares that he sees only a 51 percent chance of western civilization surviving, but the real cause of worry should be the collective neglect of their responsibilities by consumers. The often cavalier attitude to fulfilling our electoral duties and a total lack of decisive action against corruption and injustice in the day to day life of common citizens are fast putting our survival as well as that of our civilization at risk.

The current population on the planet is about 6.7 billion people. That means we are likely to see a die-off of about 5.7 billion people, or roughly 6 out of every 7 people.
Even if we are "cautiously optimistic", as Diamond chooses to describe himself, we definitely ought to be worried about the financial decisions being made by people who are in a position to jeopardize every one's future. Cheap, plentiful fossil fuels discovered in the last century spurred, what has come to be called a food bubble or glut, which led to a population bubble or explosion. Mostly, cheap oil created conditions necessary to support a runaway population expansion which we are rapidly discovering is unsustainable without affordable and cheap energy, and we are still thrashing around for that miracle to happen.

When the era of cheap oil ends, the food bubble made possible by mechanized agriculture will also end. And that is what will cause human depopulation, because in the event of disappearance of cheap energy sources the planet will be able to support only about one billion people, which is the current population of India alone. The hardest hit will be the mechanized, urban societies which are supported mostly by the man made order. This order or way of life thrives as an economic order rather than an ecological order, unlike earlier agrarian societies.

So the question to ask is: who will the survivors be?

Apparently those for whom the agrarian way of life, supporting local populations and promoting self sufficiency is the order of the day and/ or people who have the know how to live sustainable lives supported by their own food management programmes and not market economies which depend on mechanised and industrialised production processes. Sooner rather than later the migratory processes are all set to be reversed because people will abandon cities when the markets will not be able to sustain their demand supply chains.

In such a scenario there is great hope for India where the traditional knowledge of agricultural patterns and lives built around local environments are entrenched in the culture.

During this election it is time to demand that any emergent government support our farmers, specially the smaller farm holdings. Its time we understood the full significance of Gandhi's vision of a village based "not on mass production but production by the masses" and move towards establishing a self-regulated economy generating employment, food security, health and a sustainable future for us all. So exercise your right to choice and vote in a government propelled by and tuned into our needs, here and now, and for our future generations. Eschew systems that hope to last out by printing free money based on nothing. Be responsible for your own and your children's future.

Why limit your choices to what the market has on its shelves when you can choose to design the future for all humanity? Go forth and vote and stop multiplying till the future is secure! Whenever that is.

This time round its vote or perish, so make your choice.

Dr.Roopa Vajpeyi Hony.Editor